Supplementary Figures

Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) 10-year growth expectations (x-axis) vs. 10-year real rate from TIPS (y-axis)

Ex post average 10-year real rate (i.e., 10-year nominal rate minus realized inflation) versus average annual GDP growth for 14 OECD countries from 1870 to 2019. Data from Barro (2022), sourced from Global Financial Data. Do note the scale on the axes when interpreting.

Real interest rates versus future growth, as a timeseries: