Contents

1. I Long-term real rates would be high if the market was pricing advanced AI
2. II But: long-term real rates are low
3. III Uncertainty, takeoff speeds, inequality, and stocks
4. IV Historical data on interest rates supports the theory: preliminaries
5. V Historical data on interest rates supports the theory: graphs
6. VI Empirical evidence on real rates and mortality risk
7. VII Plugging the Cotra probabilities into a simple quantitative model of real interest rates predicts very high rates
8. VIII Markets are decisively rejecting the shortest possible timelines
9. IX Financial markets are the most powerful information aggregators produced by the universe (so far)
10. X If markets are not efficient, you could be earning alpha and philanthropists could be borrowing
11. XI Conclusion: outside views vs. inside views & future work
12. ✳ Postscript
13. ✳ Follow-ups

Appendices

1. 1 Against using stock prices to forecast AI timelines
2. 2 Explaining Tyler Cowen's Third Law
3. 3 Asset pricing under existential risk: a literature review
4. 4 Supplementary Figures